YAIC Weekly

By Yusra Cheng, YAIC Weekly

February 1, 2013

In a morning, an old man, Jared, escaped from a dangerous situation. Neither a armed robber broke into his house nor did he find himself face to face with a ferocious dog during this bird walk. What he survived was his daily shower.

Falls are a common cause of older people. Among his wife's and his circle of close friends over the age of 70 ( he is 75 now ), one became crippled for life, one broke the shoulder and one broke a leg in falls on the sidewalk. One fell down the stairs, and another may not survive a recent fall.

Life expectancy for a healthy American man of Jared's age is about 90. If he's to achieve his statistical quota of 15 more years of life, that means about 15 times 365, or 5475, more showers. But if Jared were so careless that his risk of slipping in the shower each time were as high as 1 in 1000, he'd die or become crippled about five times before reaching his life expectancy. He has to reduce the risk of shower accidents.

This calculation illustrates the biggest single lesson : the importance of being attentive to hazards that carry a low risk each time but are encountered frequently.

Studies have compared Americans' perceived ranking of danger with the rankings of real danger, measured either by actual accident figures or by estimated number of averted accidents. It turns out that we exaggerate the risks of events that are beyond our control, that cause many deaths at once or that kill in spectacular way -- crazy gunman, terrorists, plane crashes, nuclear radiation, genetically modified crops. At the same time, we underestimate the risk of events that we can control and of events that kill just one person in a mundane way.

However, Jared has become constructively paranoid about showers, stepladders, staircases and wet or uneven sidewalks. As he drives, he remain alert to his own possible mistakes ( especially at night ), and to what carelessness other drivers might do.

Jared's hyper-vigilance doesn't paralyze him or limit his life : he doesn't skip his daily shower and he keeps driving. He enjoys all those dangerous things, but he keeps the risks of accidents far below 1 in 1000 each time.

Actually, this is not only just for the elders but also those people like you and me. Several weeks ago, I was fainted in the bathroom. Thanks God there were other people found me and sent me to the hospital. After this horrible experience, I become more careful about whether my health is in good condition. Above all, just be aware of any tiny danger around you because it may be a lethal.

News adopted from Jared Diamond

Published in The New York Times on January 29

Pictures by Alex Nabaum